The IMOTGP View: Defending Bradley at Swansea is Wrong and Unnecessary

Unless you have been under a rock, you know by now that the first American to manage in the famed Premier League is no longer after Swansea City sacked the embattled Bob Bradley on Tuesday. The dreadful Swans continue to swan dive down the table as they languish in 19th place; Bradley picked up eight points out of 33 in his 11 matches in charge with two victories and one point out of 18 in his "road games."

Swansea shipped 10 goals in their last three defeats with supporters calling for his ouster after a Boxing Day debacle in a 4-1 home thrashing at the hands of West Ham. Bradley insisted he would fight on but it was clear that he wasn't reaching this sad-sack group.

The inevitable comparison is being made to predecessor Francesco Guidolin, who picked up four points in seven matches in charge.  Swansea were outscored 12-6 in Guidolin's matches compared to 29-15 in Bradley's 11.  Obviously the Swans scored more and defended worse under the American.

That is, unless, you look at the blogosphere and see selected facts that say otherwise like this Tweet:

Swansea City expected goals per game by manager this season...

- Guidolin: 1.39 xG, 2.29 xGA
- Bradley:  1.40 xG, 2.07 xGA

— Paul Carr (@PCarrESPN) December 27, 2016

This prompted other U.S. football writers of the pro-Bradley bent to state unequivocally that Bradley wasn't worse than Guidolin.  Except that he was worse, and not based on simple metrics such as points per game and goals allowed per game.

You see, the reason coaches like U.S. boss Bruce Arena are critical of analytics is because they know raw data about expected goals and shot attempts can be largely rubbish, to use a British term. That's because when you score is very important in football since a trailing team obviously must press the action; this is something that expected goals doesn't take into account.

That's why we crunched the numbers here at IMOTGP and found out that Guidolin's Swansea conceded three first-half goals and nine in the second half in his seven matches. That means four times his side kept a clean sheet at half-time. Bradley's Swansea conceded 12 goals in the first half and 17 after, with only four clean sheets at the half. Why does this matter? It means that Guidolin's side was more competitive as far as giving Swansea a better chance at a positive result.

Need more proof?  Guidolin's Swansea led 11.6 percent of the time and trailed 28.7 percent of the time with the score tied over the balance. Bradley's numbers in that category were 10.4 percent and a whopping 44.6 percent of time trailing. We should note we calculated this over 90 minutes in each match so the wild 5-4 win over Crystal Palace with two stoppage-time goals earned the Swans a total of 0 minutes for those tallies since they came after 90 minutes. The point remains nonetheless that Bradley's Swansea trailed for 442 out of 990 minutes; almost half the time.

It's foolish to defend Bradley using cockamamie statistics and there's no need to compare him to Guidolin anyway since either way you look at it, Swansea are a hot mess of garbage. We didn't even mention that Guidolin had to face Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea (a 2-2 draw!) among his matches, and those are the top three sides in the table. Bradley faced the three teams below them and lost those three by a combined 11-3. Bradley lost the plot, and was rightly dismissed.

We here at the IMOTGP are fans of Bob Bradley; otherwise this reader would beat us up! No one should be surprised that he became the butt of many jokes in Britain. This situation wasn't dissimilar to how American basketball fans reacted when David Blatt, an American-Israeli with a vast amount of coaching experience in Europe, was hired to coach the great LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers. Blatt was ridiculed at every turn and was dismissed as Cleveland went on to win the NBA title without him. When Blatt resurfaced in Turkey, he was made fun of for accepting that job.

This will leave a stain on his c.v. but if you were being honest, you had to ask whether Bradley, while a good manager, was really experienced enough to manage at this level.  He coached middling national teams from the United States and Egypt as well as European clubs that were hardly prominent.  In comparison, Guidolin had a distinguished career at many Serie A stops and Monday's counterpart, Slaven Bilic, has guided Croatia as well as top teams in Russia and Turkey.

Should Bradley have found a way into the Championship and developed a team that won promotion into the world's most expensive league? Perhaps, although that would also have been a difficult task. Should he have finished the job in France and brought Le Havre to Ligue One? Perhaps, again. Bradley chose to strike while the iron was hot; the problem was the iron he picked up was too hot to handle.

There is no need to criticize Bradley; he's still one of the best American managers in history.  The sad truth is that the vast majority of football players and coaches from the United States simply do not have enough of a top-class pedigree to succeed in Europe's top leagues at this point. There are exceptions, of course, but to expect instant success from a U.S. player or coach is pure folly.  The United States has much to prove in the football world and Bradley's admirable tenure was more evidence of this.

A Difficult Night in Berlin

It goes without saying that football was secondary in Berlin on Wednesday night as Hertha BSC cruised past Darmstadt 2-0 to wrap up the 2016 part of the campaign. Just the day before in the pre-match press conference was a somber atmosphere as the details were presented about additional security at the Olympiastadion after the deadly attack at the Breitscheidplatz Christmas Market killed 12 and injured about 50 more and shook the nation.  Coach Pal Dardai said: "Berlin should remain strong and stand together."

The Hertha and Darmstadt players locked arm in arm before the match. There was football to be played but it is clear that things will no longer be the same in the nation's capital. The attack took place not too far from Zoo Berlin, and an eerie quiet settled in throughout the city.

A mid-week fixture in the cold against the bottom side in the league was never going to fill the cavernous stadium, and a crowd of slightly more than 31,000 came to see the match. The showdown for the Herbstmeisterschaft (winter champion) between Bayern and RB Leipzig  surely left some people home, although it is clear there was more to it than that.

The drab first half featured no goals as Hertha's goalless streak stretched into five halves of football in the tense night. Thankfully, Marvin Plattenhardt stepped up and delivered one of the best freekicks you will ever see at the :50 mark below:

The hosts added a Salomon Kalou header and saluted the crowd before the post-game reaction was as much about the mood in the city compared to what really was a dreadful match. Said Dardai: "It is difficult to talk about the attack. We need to stick together at this time."  Said Kalou: "We won for the city of Berlin. Our fans showed that love is more important than anything else."

Perhaps more notable was that among each team's substitutes used were Anis Ben-Hatira for Darmstadt and Sami Allagui for Hertha. The Berlin-born Ben-Hatira played for Hertha between 2011-16 while Allagui, also German-born, returned from a lengthy injury lay-off for a 12-minute cameo.

Certainly Ben-Hatira and Allagui faced the most difficult set of circumstances to play Wednesday night. Both are Tunisian internationals and the suspect at large is a Tunisian and former asylum seeker.  If Hertha ever had an advantage in the Bundesliga, it was supposedly the diversity of the city that allowed Ben-Hatira and Bayern Munich star Jerome Boateng among others to come through the youth system. That multiculturalism is under attack now by this woman, a politician on the rise who suggested that German border guards "use firearms if necessary" to prevent illegals from crossing into the nation.

The geographic location of Germany has always helped the Bundesliga link top international footballers from Western and Eastern Europe in a way that the other continental footballing countries could not. Players from North America, South America, Africa and Asia have also found the league to be a happy landing spot to establish their initial careers because of this, and also because of many clubs' willingness to give younger players opportunities.

This attack came on the heels of the one this summer in Munich. Sadly, the grim reality of these incidents was evident on the final day of the Bundesliga season in 2016.

It's getting ugly in Wales for Bob Bradley

If you look at the bottom of the Premier League table, you will see Swansea City in 19th place above only Hull City on goal difference.  The Swans were horrendous in shipping six goals away to West Bromwich Albion and fellow relegation contender Boro in two crucial defeats last week.

Even worse is that American manager Bob Bradley was ridiculed for using 'PK' and 'road matches' in his comments. That set off a torrent of criticism, although to be fair the criticism is really about what a defensive abomination the sole Welsh representative in the Premier League truly are.

Bradley said after losing at the Riverside to Boro that he knew what he signed up for. But maybe he didn't know that his presence in the Prem would spawn British tabloid TV to create a segment called 'Brad Bobley.'  It's become quite popular.

To be truthful, these aren't really that funny but it is en vogue to make fun of Americans worldwide these days thanks to this guy.  So expect more and more episodes unless Bradley can turn it around and not ship three goals a game.

Can India supplant the United States as a footballing destination?

Unless you have been under a rock or in a "safe space," you know that Virat Kohli is widely considered one of the world's greatest athletes. Kohli has put forth a series of astounding batting displays to lead India to an easy series victory over England, showcasing why Team India is the No. 1 Test cricket team in the world. Even people who hate Kohli love him.

A topic of debate in sports bars from Mumbai to Manipur is imagining how great India would be at football if top-level cricketers like Kohli played the sport instead. It is well known how India practices football in their training sessions, after all.

Seasoned United States fans have heard this before. American football superstar Odell Beckham has stated that he would have played for Real Madrid or Barcelona if he stuck with the sport he dominated as a child, choosing instead to stay in the States since he claims he didn't want to leave his family.

Both India and the United States have professional leagues in which the best players tend to be over 35 years old. MLS commissioner Don Garber claims that his league can produce the next Christian Pulisic yet still trumpets Frank Lampard's impact on the league. Supporters of MLS brag that the stadiums are first-rate and fans are enjoying the matches - even though the championship was won by a team without a shot on target for a 120-minute match.

There is little question that MLS-level caliber of football can also be produced in India's Super League. Players such as John Arne Riise, Florent Malouda, Lucio, Diego Forlan and Mohamed Sissoko all operate there, and the eight-team league is thriving.

That number eight should be noted since only major Indian cities have clubs for a three-month season. Unlike the expansion of MLS to almost 30 teams, soccer in India is getting light exposure in order not to water down the league. In that sense, an IPL team probably has the same amount of quality as MLS and attendance has averaged over 27,000.

It's not hard to imagine India's football league soon topping MLS since the goal is to eventually compete with the Japanese league as the best in Asia.  The J-League's credentials can't be questioned after Kashima Antlers took Real Madrid to extra time in a spirited display in the Club World Cup championship. 

That's the same competition in which CONCACAF champion Club America were hammered by a jet-lagged Real Madrid in the video below. Of course, no MLS team has had the quality to oust a Mexican team to gain entry to the event so it shows where the league truly ranks in the pecking order of football. This week was proof that MLS is no match for the J-League.

India has two teenage footballers as trialists in Spain so the real question is whether the next Virat Kohli will choose the sport rather than cricket. It's a tough call in India since cricketers get fame, fortune and the best Bollywood models, much like American football players in the States. It's worth watching how much football develops in India and the United States as they vie for the status of having the best 35-and-over league in the world.

Arena Bringing what the U.S. Need: The Truth

The United States has announced that tickets will go on sale Monday for the Jan. 29 matchup in San Diego versus Serbia.  Making that announcement was none other than Bruce Arena, back for a second go-around as boss and the no-nonsense manager showed what he was all about Friday with an unprecedented Facebook Q and A.

Arena took a number of fan questions and two things happened. One, the questions were quite good and two, Arena answered them honestly and thoroughly.  Gone were the days of the U.S. coach lambasting the fans after getting thrashed by four goals.

He was forthright about the January camp, mentioning that players who were out of favor in the past like Benny Feilhaber, Darlington Nagbe, Juan Agudelo and Gyasi Zardes would be there. He also intends to bring in uncapped players like Walker Zimmerman, Keegan Rosenberry and Gambian-born Kekuta Manneh, with Chris Pontius of the Union also earning the right to go to the camp. Arena detailed how Perry Kitchen won't be there since Hearts is in a Cup competition. is in the bloody Scottish Cup! - (note:IMOTGP reader Ryan Willox)

The coach said there is hope that Clint Dempsey will be available for the camp while explaining that Boro backup Brad Guzan is the No. 1 keeper for the qualifiers now given that Tim Howard will still be recovering from surgery come March.

Arena didn't shy away from the tantalizing possibility that Christian Pulisic and Sacha Kljestan could play together in the middle of the pitch, suggesting a 4-1-4-1 as a possible setup.  He said he was unaware of any new young talent in the pipeline, with the inference being that the player pool that the knowledgeable U.S. fan sees is the same one he does as well.

He provided details of his trip to Germany in which he visited with Fabian Johnson, John Brooks, Bobby Wood, Christian Pulisic and Timmy Chandler. Arena specifically mentioned Wood's stint off the bench in a match against Darmstadt and directly answered a question of where Johnson would play by saying that he asked Johnson the exact question: Johnson said he can play as a defender or midfielder but just wants consistency. Arena noted he would not be able to work with this group until the week before the Honduras match.

As for team performance, Arena indicated that he wants a minimum of four points from the home game against Honduras and match at Panama in March. Gone are the days when the U.S. coach says we are going to "take it to them" and loses by four on the road; this is Arena's pragmatism showing. He noted that Chandler and Jermaine Jones are suspended for Honduras, a match he termed  "must-win." Arena also said winning the Gold Cup is important in 2017.

Other highlights: As far as fixing the team, finding a No. 10 is a priority for Arena as well as shoring up the back line by organizing it better. And that back line will comprise of players such as Brooks, Johnson, Geoff Cameron and DeAndre Yedlin so it's unlikely anyone from MLS will fill those roles.

When asked whether he would encourage players to play abroad or in MLS, Arena was non-commital yet made this interesting remark: "For me it makes no sense if a player is playing on a reputable club abroad and doesn't get on the field (for the U.S.)." Can this be read into Yedlin somehow going off the radar for our team yet featuring regularly for Newcastle?

When asked about relying on veterans for qualifying as opposed to young players, he notably said that using younger players makes more sense at home than in an away environment like Panama. Pulisic having ups and downs was specifically mentioned. You may recall that in the first two hex games, Pulisic started both the Mexico and Costa Rica matches; this blog felt that Pulisic should have been kept in reserve in Costa Rica - a tactic the shrewd home side used in bringing in Joel Campbell off the bench to shred us to pieces.

Leaving no stone unturned, the ageless DaMarcus Beasley will get a look in January. Matt Miazga, who recently scored his first goal in Europe, is not part of Arena's plans for now since the defender is not getting regular playing time at Vitesse. Arena said Columbus attacker Ethan Finley is playing well but not well enough to earn a shot in January.

In conclusion, there could not have been a more thorough evaluation of the state of the program and all the moving pieces involved and it could not have been done in a more professional manner. We encourage all of you U.S. fans to watch the Q and A and judge for yourself. This in and of itself should give us hope that 2017 will be a step forward after this past year made us a world laughingstock.

No surprise: Don Garber lies about the state of MLS

As most football fans know, it's time to crown the champion of MLS on Saturday night. You didn't know? Well you should watch this below ...

Anyway the championship game will be held in Canada for the second time, with Toronto FC hosting Seattle Sounders, a team you will recall this blog went to see back in August when we scouted Nicolas Lodeiro and company. It's a great matchup that features Lodeiro for the Sounders and Italian star Sebastian Giovinco for TFC, marking a rare title game in which both teams' best players are not even 30 years old, let alone the minimum age requirement of 35 for most foreign stars. 

This fact has caused MLS Commissioner Don Garber to go into full-on bragging mode about the quality of MLS, Garber claims that we have "young stars" to look forward to as he continues to make MLS one of the "best leagues in the world."

Said Garber: "Without doubt the target is younger players who are coming at the prime of their career or even as they're beginning to establish their career.

"The strategy in the past might have been to sign players that were well known who have already established their legend playing someplace else. Now we're able to bring in a (Nicolas) Lodeiro who is an accomplished player at 28, but he's the MLS newcomer of the year and we're hoping he can create a legend for himself in Major League Soccer and in Seattle.

"Certainly Sebastian Giovinco has been able to prove that, and Giovani dos Santos who has seen his career really rise to an entirely new level by playing in (Los Angeles). It's part of the evolution of our league."

Let's examine this statement. Bragging about players 28 years old is great and Lodeiro and Giovinco are solid. But if we are talking about great players at that age, we are talking about this guy and this guy. Lodeiro only made 13 appearances for Seattle though he is a player on the rise while Giovinco has never been considered one of the top 50 players in the world.

Meanwhile, it's true that Dos Santos has been more productive in MLS than anywhere else in his career. But is that rising "to an entirely new level," as Garber says, or simply dominating an inferior league. Garber is ridiculous in thinking the U.S. fan somehow won't understand this. Obviously, Giovinco never dominated Serie A like this. To put things into perspective, when The Phantom is playing goalkeeper with little boys and girls in summer camp, he morphs into a fearsome combination of Gigi Buffon and Edwin van der Sar. Those 10-year-olds don't stand a chance!

You can read more nonsense from Garber here.  He wasn't asked about the embarrassing fact that MLS teams fly commercial, and if he was, he would probably tell you that flying Southwest is part of his master plan to "grow the game" and make MLS "one of the best leagues" in the world. Much like Sunil Gulati with the U.S. team, Garber exists to try to fool American fans into thinking MLS is a premium product. It's not and won't be anytime soon, given his plans to expand the league to such lengths that we could eventually have a top flight as big as a 48-team World Cup.