International break update: The race for the Bundesliga Champions League Spots!

As we head into the final international break of the football season, it is worth looking at the Bundesliga standings to see who will win the league.  Now we know what you are saying, well it's a two-horse race between Bayern and Dortmund. Well you would be wrong!

Let's explain. Atletico boss Cholo Simeone always talks about his team's aim is to finish first in its table, which excludes powerhouses Barcelona and Real Madrid - even though the Atleti won La Liga in 2014. Well the same situation applies in Germany. The other teams aren't competing with Bayern and Dortmund - possibly two of the four or five best teams in the world. So let's see who will win the "Simeone table" in the Bundesliga.

Hertha     48 pts
(Home: H96, Darmstadt, Bayern. Away: Gladbach, Bayer 04, Hoffenheim, Mainz)

Schalke   44 
(Home: Bayer 04, Dortmund, FCA.  Away: Ingolstadt, H96, Hoffenheim, Bayern)

Gladbach 42  
(Home: Hertha, Hoffenheim, B04.    Away: Ingolstadt, H96, Darmstadt, Bayern)

Bayer      42
(Home: Hertha, Wolfsburg, Frankfurt, Ingolstadt. Away: Cologne, Schalke, Gladbach)

Mainz      41
(Home: Hertha, FCA, Cologne, HSV.  Away: Wolfsburg, VfB, Frankfurt)

Obviously Hertha have a pretty tough schedule. But we think 10 points (wins over H96, Darmstadt and Hoffenheim and a draw in one of the 3 other away games) may be enough and 11 with two of those games in draws would certainly be. That puts Berlin on 58 or 59. 

Let's say it's 58. Then Gladbach would have to win five, draw one and lose maybe to Bayern to match that. Leverkusen would have to win five, draw one and lose once to match that.  Schalke would have to win five to pass Hertha or win four plus get two draws to match the capital side - and we assume they get 0 points at the Allianz and who knows how many they get in the Revierderby versus BVB. Leverkusen and Mainz are the only clubs in this list with four home games left but Leverkusen play both Schalke and Gladbach away.

Hertha play Mainz the last day so 05 need to make up four points in the next six matches to have a chance at catching Pal Dardai's men. And Hertha, of course, could win at the Coface Arena if necessary.

Bottom line: If Hertha beat Hannover, Darmstadt and Hoffenheim, the Champions League will be coming to Berlin!